Post by benji on Oct 21, 2022 14:56:49 GMT -5
ROUND 6!
Let's do some player write ups, bitch!
NUKORALA
1. Jenn
Jenn is playing completely untethered from where she sat last time on XTC. She's lying to everyone and everyone is EATING IT UP. Even before Spencer left, he would consistently talk up how much he liked Jenn. She is a silent assassin this season. She has Carlos and Kyle close and has good ties with Lamont and Ben. Jenn is a player that others might be worried about... but she's playing such a UTR game, that I don't think they will see the moves she is making. She's lying to enough people to confuse them where she stands. I wouldn't have put her up this high pre-swap, but the swap was so generous for her. She is insulated with numbers and her name has been proposition exactly zero times. I think even she feels the energy she's putting into this game and how positively it's impacting her game. I do see Jenn having some trouble at the merge with certain players (Leah and Mike G), but those two are on a lot of people's shit list, as well. It'll make for an interesting meet-up.
2. Carlos
Riding high on his idol play/blindside, he took out everyone's ally. I don't think that Carlos is perceived to be in this position on his tribe, but he really put himself in a good spot. Ben was ecstatic that Carlos played the idol and stayed. And Carlos is leaning into that relationship, although I don't think he especially wants to work with Ben. Lamont is still tight with Carlos and Amber has been giving him the extra attention she didn't in the previous round. I don't think Carlos is a target for anyone on the other tribe, which really heightens his options come merge. I see him getting burned by Jenn's chaos down the road, though.
3. Lamont
Lamont is in a pretty good position, all things considered. I'm not sure how much weight he is pulling into his placement. He's mainly riding off the fact that one of his allies *Actually* had an idol and saved himself. While I do love the move of telling Spencer that Carlos has an idol... the odds were not with him here. He might be a number for someone in the merge, but I also think he has the chaos bug and will want to make a big move. Seeing how he has an extra vote now, he might be able to swing his weight to get out a threat in a few rounds. It depends how well his bonds with Jenn/Carlos carry into a merge.
4. Ben
I really don't think Ben's placement here will carry over into a merge very well. He's in a decent spot here because no one has the energy to target him right now. His name was said as someone to vote out, but only because he's kind of a glue that held some groups together. Now that Spencer is gone, Ben's agency goes down. Spencer was an ally he needed to make moves for him. Now, all he *really* has is Amber. I don't think Kyle wants to go far with Ben. I may be surprised of the options he has going into a merge, but I don't see it right now. If Kolara were to go to tribal, I think his name might be passed around as an option. But, since they narrowly won, he is safe for now.
5. Kyle
Kyle is public enemy #1. On all sides. NuMaskorra, especially. It didn't help that he held information from everyone that he didn't have a vote last round. He's fortunate that Carlos listened to Jenn and went after Spencer, instead of Kyle. What's most curious about Kyle is that his gameplay resembles Jake Stewart. No, not the flirty side. The side that fights through adversity. He is one of the calmest players I've seen and he is SO GOOD at making people feel comfortable with him. If Mike G can shake the hate after blindsiding his tribe, I think that Kyle can shake his image in his current position. I fully expect Kyle's stock to go up from here, but he needs to put in that time. I think he will.
6. Amber
It's hard to get a read on where Amber thinks she is in this game. She has all the confidence in the world, but I am not sure if that's her trying to fake it until she makes it - or if she really thinks she is in a good position. I think she's convinced that Kyle and Ben are the players who can run things... but they aren't the most socially like players to be linked to. That being said, if things went to tribal for Maskorra, I think her name would be tossed around. She hasn't done much to stand up for an ally or show that she's working well with a group. She's been going with the flow and needs to find her footing. It might be too late, but her reputation as being a likeable person may carry her a few more rounds. I don't see her going the distance, though.
NUMASKORRA
1. Mike G
I'm honestly surprised Mike is here. If NuMaskorra had to go to tribal last round, I think he would have left. All he needed was time. He's already good with Taylor, but his lynch pin to climbing to the top here was Leah. Leah is doing what she can to protect Mike and that's all he needs because her vote is consequential. Now that he's guaranteed to not be the vote from Leah/Rocky/Allie, he's in good with Michael and he's the only person that could do something about him this round. Mike will also be walking in with a plan to merge. He wants to target Jenn through Leah, I believe. He also wants to make Kyle suffer a bit, due to the fact that he and Taylor exposed some of his promises to both of them. I think that Mike could make a run for the end from this position.
2. Allie
I'm curious to know how true this placement is for Allie. This may be a bit of wishing from me, but I have really enjoyed Allie this season. She's playing a decent middle right now, although Leah did expose her disdain of Mike from last round. That aside, I don't think Mike would completely rule out working with Allie... maybe just keeping an extra close eye on her. No one wants to target her and she has options. Once the merge comes, she will have even more options. She's smart, in a good position and is insulated with bigger targets. Allie has some work to do, but she's been putting that work in the last few days. Excited to see this arc progress.
3. Taylor
Taylor could be ranked anywhere from 2-5 on this list. Her position depends on how Mike is feeling about her. He isn't high on her right now, but I also think she won't be targeted if she survives the vote tonight. I'm putting her at 3 due to the fact that she is kind of relying on whoever Michael throws his vote on tonight. Taylor will definitely benefit from a merge right now. She needs more players to work with. I think she could quickly start to work with Kyle and cut him when she's gotten herself into a better position. She's a savvy player and she knows how to get herself one round further... we just need that energy tonight.
4. Leah
Leah should be in a better position, but she catapulted Mike into that position by telling him everything that was going to happen with Rocky/Allie. I'm honestly not sure why she decided to do this. I guess since Spencer is gone, she needs someone close? But she has Rocky. I'm honestly struggling to understand giving up so much for Mike G. Michael doesn't want to keep Leah around and he has an idol to play with tonight. Mike did mention to Michael to keep Leah, but why would Michael do that if it doesn't benefit him? To help Mike? Idk. He might do it, but he also might take out Leah. She's considered throwing her vote to tie a potential idol play. Let's role play: Michael votes Leah, Leah votes Taylor and the rest are for Michael, who plays his idol. The revote is Michael, Mike, Rocky and Allie. I would venture to guess that Leah is saved on a revote... but that's if she votes Taylor. She told me this morning she's voting Michael, too. I really don't know how tonight is going to shake out, but Leah could be headed out.
5. Rocky
Rocky has been in the back seat since the swap. I think he lost a lot of control after AJ's blindside. He doesn't have the connections to rebuild his position, like Leah. He does have Allie and Leah... but Leah let the cat out of the bag and now it's way less agency than before. The best thing for his game right now would be Leah leaving. It would force him to find a better option for him because Leah ain't it right now. Otherwise, he was on the wrong side of the blindside last vote which left him in the graces of everyone else. If Michael keeps his promise to not vote out Leah, me thinks he would go after Rocky or... maybe Mike. Depends on his chaos level today.
6. Michael
Michael has this way of talking that kind of... overwhelms players. His intensity and attentiveness doesn't go unnoticed. He's a team player and people generally enjoy him, but I think they're wary of his loose lips come merge. He was saved last round, but Mike doesn't want to keep him. Mike even kind of convinced himself maybe it's time to cut Michael tonight. But so long everything goes as planned, Michael will be playing the idol he found tonight. I don't think anyone sees it coming... so this is dependent on him keeping his mouth quiet about the idol before the vote. I am worried he's going to let it leak, because he can't resist telling someone a secret. If he can keep it to himself, he gets to choose who goes home tonight, because it looks like 5 votes are coming his way...
My winner prediction as of today: I had a dream last night that CARLOS was talking himself into a win at FTC. So let's go with him!
Let's do some player write ups, bitch!
NUKORALA
1. Jenn
Jenn is playing completely untethered from where she sat last time on XTC. She's lying to everyone and everyone is EATING IT UP. Even before Spencer left, he would consistently talk up how much he liked Jenn. She is a silent assassin this season. She has Carlos and Kyle close and has good ties with Lamont and Ben. Jenn is a player that others might be worried about... but she's playing such a UTR game, that I don't think they will see the moves she is making. She's lying to enough people to confuse them where she stands. I wouldn't have put her up this high pre-swap, but the swap was so generous for her. She is insulated with numbers and her name has been proposition exactly zero times. I think even she feels the energy she's putting into this game and how positively it's impacting her game. I do see Jenn having some trouble at the merge with certain players (Leah and Mike G), but those two are on a lot of people's shit list, as well. It'll make for an interesting meet-up.
2. Carlos
Riding high on his idol play/blindside, he took out everyone's ally. I don't think that Carlos is perceived to be in this position on his tribe, but he really put himself in a good spot. Ben was ecstatic that Carlos played the idol and stayed. And Carlos is leaning into that relationship, although I don't think he especially wants to work with Ben. Lamont is still tight with Carlos and Amber has been giving him the extra attention she didn't in the previous round. I don't think Carlos is a target for anyone on the other tribe, which really heightens his options come merge. I see him getting burned by Jenn's chaos down the road, though.
3. Lamont
Lamont is in a pretty good position, all things considered. I'm not sure how much weight he is pulling into his placement. He's mainly riding off the fact that one of his allies *Actually* had an idol and saved himself. While I do love the move of telling Spencer that Carlos has an idol... the odds were not with him here. He might be a number for someone in the merge, but I also think he has the chaos bug and will want to make a big move. Seeing how he has an extra vote now, he might be able to swing his weight to get out a threat in a few rounds. It depends how well his bonds with Jenn/Carlos carry into a merge.
4. Ben
I really don't think Ben's placement here will carry over into a merge very well. He's in a decent spot here because no one has the energy to target him right now. His name was said as someone to vote out, but only because he's kind of a glue that held some groups together. Now that Spencer is gone, Ben's agency goes down. Spencer was an ally he needed to make moves for him. Now, all he *really* has is Amber. I don't think Kyle wants to go far with Ben. I may be surprised of the options he has going into a merge, but I don't see it right now. If Kolara were to go to tribal, I think his name might be passed around as an option. But, since they narrowly won, he is safe for now.
5. Kyle
Kyle is public enemy #1. On all sides. NuMaskorra, especially. It didn't help that he held information from everyone that he didn't have a vote last round. He's fortunate that Carlos listened to Jenn and went after Spencer, instead of Kyle. What's most curious about Kyle is that his gameplay resembles Jake Stewart. No, not the flirty side. The side that fights through adversity. He is one of the calmest players I've seen and he is SO GOOD at making people feel comfortable with him. If Mike G can shake the hate after blindsiding his tribe, I think that Kyle can shake his image in his current position. I fully expect Kyle's stock to go up from here, but he needs to put in that time. I think he will.
6. Amber
It's hard to get a read on where Amber thinks she is in this game. She has all the confidence in the world, but I am not sure if that's her trying to fake it until she makes it - or if she really thinks she is in a good position. I think she's convinced that Kyle and Ben are the players who can run things... but they aren't the most socially like players to be linked to. That being said, if things went to tribal for Maskorra, I think her name would be tossed around. She hasn't done much to stand up for an ally or show that she's working well with a group. She's been going with the flow and needs to find her footing. It might be too late, but her reputation as being a likeable person may carry her a few more rounds. I don't see her going the distance, though.
NUMASKORRA
1. Mike G
I'm honestly surprised Mike is here. If NuMaskorra had to go to tribal last round, I think he would have left. All he needed was time. He's already good with Taylor, but his lynch pin to climbing to the top here was Leah. Leah is doing what she can to protect Mike and that's all he needs because her vote is consequential. Now that he's guaranteed to not be the vote from Leah/Rocky/Allie, he's in good with Michael and he's the only person that could do something about him this round. Mike will also be walking in with a plan to merge. He wants to target Jenn through Leah, I believe. He also wants to make Kyle suffer a bit, due to the fact that he and Taylor exposed some of his promises to both of them. I think that Mike could make a run for the end from this position.
2. Allie
I'm curious to know how true this placement is for Allie. This may be a bit of wishing from me, but I have really enjoyed Allie this season. She's playing a decent middle right now, although Leah did expose her disdain of Mike from last round. That aside, I don't think Mike would completely rule out working with Allie... maybe just keeping an extra close eye on her. No one wants to target her and she has options. Once the merge comes, she will have even more options. She's smart, in a good position and is insulated with bigger targets. Allie has some work to do, but she's been putting that work in the last few days. Excited to see this arc progress.
3. Taylor
Taylor could be ranked anywhere from 2-5 on this list. Her position depends on how Mike is feeling about her. He isn't high on her right now, but I also think she won't be targeted if she survives the vote tonight. I'm putting her at 3 due to the fact that she is kind of relying on whoever Michael throws his vote on tonight. Taylor will definitely benefit from a merge right now. She needs more players to work with. I think she could quickly start to work with Kyle and cut him when she's gotten herself into a better position. She's a savvy player and she knows how to get herself one round further... we just need that energy tonight.
4. Leah
Leah should be in a better position, but she catapulted Mike into that position by telling him everything that was going to happen with Rocky/Allie. I'm honestly not sure why she decided to do this. I guess since Spencer is gone, she needs someone close? But she has Rocky. I'm honestly struggling to understand giving up so much for Mike G. Michael doesn't want to keep Leah around and he has an idol to play with tonight. Mike did mention to Michael to keep Leah, but why would Michael do that if it doesn't benefit him? To help Mike? Idk. He might do it, but he also might take out Leah. She's considered throwing her vote to tie a potential idol play. Let's role play: Michael votes Leah, Leah votes Taylor and the rest are for Michael, who plays his idol. The revote is Michael, Mike, Rocky and Allie. I would venture to guess that Leah is saved on a revote... but that's if she votes Taylor. She told me this morning she's voting Michael, too. I really don't know how tonight is going to shake out, but Leah could be headed out.
5. Rocky
Rocky has been in the back seat since the swap. I think he lost a lot of control after AJ's blindside. He doesn't have the connections to rebuild his position, like Leah. He does have Allie and Leah... but Leah let the cat out of the bag and now it's way less agency than before. The best thing for his game right now would be Leah leaving. It would force him to find a better option for him because Leah ain't it right now. Otherwise, he was on the wrong side of the blindside last vote which left him in the graces of everyone else. If Michael keeps his promise to not vote out Leah, me thinks he would go after Rocky or... maybe Mike. Depends on his chaos level today.
6. Michael
Michael has this way of talking that kind of... overwhelms players. His intensity and attentiveness doesn't go unnoticed. He's a team player and people generally enjoy him, but I think they're wary of his loose lips come merge. He was saved last round, but Mike doesn't want to keep him. Mike even kind of convinced himself maybe it's time to cut Michael tonight. But so long everything goes as planned, Michael will be playing the idol he found tonight. I don't think anyone sees it coming... so this is dependent on him keeping his mouth quiet about the idol before the vote. I am worried he's going to let it leak, because he can't resist telling someone a secret. If he can keep it to himself, he gets to choose who goes home tonight, because it looks like 5 votes are coming his way...
My winner prediction as of today: I had a dream last night that CARLOS was talking himself into a win at FTC. So let's go with him!