Post by benji on Oct 7, 2022 15:08:52 GMT -5
Hey everyone!
Sorry I am behind schedule on my regular round by round breakdowns, but life has been a bit busy since the game started. We already lost a player (RIP Morgan), but I will be including my best understanding of her position and exit on the tribe breakdowns.
KORALA
This tribe has a LOT of experience and will be attending tribal council tonight. I haven't had much of an opportunity to check in on where they are thinking the votes may lie, as I've been attuned to the other tribal council. Regardless, here are my current standings!
1. Kyle
Kyle is effortless in his gameplay so far. He easily connects with people and not just through conversation. People like him, inherently. He doesn't need to give much, other than attention and witty banter to win over this tribe. Mike G has been working closely with him since the beginning and he's convinced Taylor that they are a duo. Honestly, I think he's still keeping his options open, and not committing to any player too soon. He does seem to have most loyalties with Mike G, but that's because Mike G is as invested in working with Kyle. Otherwise, all of the other players speak highly of him and want to work with him *right now*. This tribe is full of heavy hitters, so I wouldn't expect Kyle's longevity to be promised.
2. Mike G.
Mike is playing a masterful game. The reason he isn't my number one is mainly due to Kyle's prowess and Mike's own perception of him not being on top. Since he's not in an official alliance, he thinks that he's at the bottom. Funny part is, this tribe is slow to make any groups. They are all tight individually, but no one has really stepped forward to claim a group like the other tribes. Mike is the SOLE REASON they did not go to tribal last round. He absolute man-handled Oskola at the end to singlehandedly take immunity away from them. Even Oskola after the challenge and at tribal council were in awe of how he took that game away from them. He knows he is playing well, and to be honest, having his perception of being on the outs might improve his game even more. Mike isn't known to play chaotic; he is much more of a patient mastermind. I see him rising to the top of any tribe he is on. I worry for his stance at merge, but we have a lot of time until then.
3. Taylor
Taylor could be anywhere on this list. Time is her friend, and they don't have much more of it before they vote more people out. As of 20-30 hours ago, she was the name to be the first vote. Even after her and Kyle had a great conversation, Kyle admitted to liking her, but also respecting the fact that Mike wants her out due to her top tier playing. It's so wonderful to watch Taylor play again. Everyone is both drawn into her and threatened by how quickly they are drawn in to her. Taylor plays best from middle positions, which she is currently standing in. She somehow won over Mike and Kyle enough to possibly be saved this round. It's mainly due to the fact that she's someone they can rely on to be around in the game (unlike Allie). This is what bolstered her to this position. Mike and Kyle will hold her close until they're ready to cut her. That can happen at any time, tbh.
4. Amber
As someone who has played with Amber twice, this feels like the most honest and raw version I've seen of her. Amber is a fucking queen and usually leans into a villain role. She has the wit, and the biting remarks to make players blush post-game... but we aren't really seeing that Amber. She's been very vulnerable, up-front and kind to all of her tribemates. It feels as though she is truly enjoying this game and getting to know everyone. While she may be busy in the game, she's putting in just enough effort to keep people invested in keeping her. The consensus on the tribal council option of Amber has been "I really like her and I don't want her to leave". That's a great position for her, because she can turn it on late game and start to make her way to the top. Regardless of late game predictions, I see Amber cruising through the next few rounds, trying to rock the boat as seldom as possible.
5. Austin
Austin is exactly where he needs to be, IMO. He is typically served up as an easy first boot (see: Zanzibar). Austin thrives on playing from the bottom, and so long he survives a tribal, it gives him more time to blow up people's games. Lately, he has been roping in Mike G as some sort of sensei. Mike isn't exactly buying it, but he finds it endearing. Austin's MO this game has been "I'm trying to change my ways". I don't buy it one bit, but some of the players are starting to believe it. This is a recipe for some late game Austin fuck-shit-up energy. I'm HERE FOR IT!
6. Allie
Allie has been busy the last few days. We all get busy, but it's about finding time to placate your allies (see what i did there). People are starting to wonder what her stance is in the game and how she's going to help their games. They all liked her at the start of the game... but things change when you're forced to pick a name. I don't know what she can do to undo this current plan, as people have justified their reasons to keep everyone else. She might be able to drag Austin down, but I don't think she knows how to handle a player like Austin. I don't want to see her go... but we might be waving goodbye tonight
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MASKORRA
Maskorra has had the benefit of not going to any tribal councils. I do need to mention here that AJ was originally on this tribe, and he did a good job putting in werk with the people that are most important on the tribe. No one has been speaking shit about him offering himself to be exiled, nor do they dislike him in general. AJ made a big power play by both being generally liked by his OG tribe and being liked by his new tribe... but I will fill that in on the next write up.
1. Ben
Flashbacks of Zanzibar coming through. Ben is the reliable, likable leader that we came to know on XTC11. That being said, this is not a tribe of people who haven't played before. Those below Ben on the list are watching him quietly. Maskorra not going to tribal council is not helping Ben. When you're on top and no one is leaving, heavy is the head that wears the crown. That does not mean I think he will be blindsided, but they might be more inclined to weaken him by taking out an ally. Carlos has showed some disdain for Ben being chosen for everything. Carlos is good at planting seeds and I think he's holding onto that resentment to take a shot at him late game. For now? Ben is tight with Nina (who also wants to work with him) and Nina is maaayyybe not the most solid person to have as your number one. Anywho, he should be fine for a round or two.
2. Nina
Everyone knows that Nina is agent chaos. Yet, everyone loves her and wants to work with her, with a watchful eye. She's funny, around to talk, being good with the tribe and making close allies. As I mentioned above, she is closest with Ben, but is not perceived as a big threat by anyone (yet). Nina knows how to maximize her potential in her positions, so I think she will be a force through the late game. The real question is: will Nina start to build the right game for her to win this game?
3. Jenn
I debated putting Jenn in this position, but I really think she has found herself in a very comfortable middle position. No one really speaks ill of her nor gushes. Carlos seems to be the person she is clicking with the most, and he respects Jenn's gameplay, so he won't be blindsiding her. Having a player like Carlos with you is a nice shield. She needs a shield and a familiar face she can trust. This might be the unlikely duo that goes late into the game and propels Jenn into a power position. My major concern is that she will make the moves to consider herself a threat to win. I would never use goat with any of these players, but I could see her game becoming too muddy and she finds herself being taken through round to round. I'm very interested to see how her game plays out.
4. Carlos
Carlos is such an interesting player. As someone who played with/against him in Legacy, he tends to have a slow approach and play both chaotic and lazy. Lazy isn't necessarily bad, I think it's more attuned to his convenience. That being said, he is slow playing this game so far and I think it will set him up for future success. With "up front" players like Ben and Michael, Carlos can even hide behind veterans like Jenn to insulate him in the late game. My real question is how will Carlos handle his options in the late game. He is very game wise, so I anticipate him stirring the pot when he gets to a bump in the road. My concern is if he gets mixed up with a wild card like Austin. Players like Austin truly throw wrenches onto the paths of other chaotic players. Either way, he's sitting in a good spot.
5. Lamont
Lamont is a slow burn. He also feeds off of drama, so his tribe winning twice in a row is doing him no favors other than helping him slowly get some players on his side. He likes to lead, but I fear he might be a side-cart player for someone else. What he needs to lock down is who his ride or die is. He is currently not with Ben's vibe and said so at the end of a call with him. Not that he doesn't like him, but that he sees him as a threat. If he wants to take the wheel, he should find the right time to target Ben and get support behind it. He shouldn't rush this, though. Going after Ben early could be a detriment to his game.
6. Michael
Michael is constantly plagued by his own perceptions. As we know, Michael is very much a cerebral player, however, it may be to a fault in this season. He's vocal, always available and transparent in his intentions (for the most part). That being said, most players believe they can read Michael and therefore don't read too much into his gameplay. Are they right? Well, in some estimations, but not all. Like I said, he is very cerebral. I do fear that he overthinks and is constantly reading into everything too much. He recognizes himself as a challenge beast (which he is, as far as Only Connect is concerned), but I don't think other players are weighing challenge prowess much into their assessments. This is an all returner season. Challenges are merely a random element to decide who's leaving, not how the game is going to be played. I worry he will be paying attention to the wrong details as the game moves forward. Also, players can quickly become overwhelmed with his volume of communication. I hope he can recognize this and learn that making them wonder about his game might help his actual game. Either way, if he keeps winning challenges, he won't need to worry until the merge.
OSKOLA
The tribe that keeps losing. If anything, the most interesting of tribes, thanks for their need to cut players from the game.
1. Leah
Much like all of my current top-spotters on this write-up, Leah needs to treat carefully... but who am I kidding. She knows exactly what she's doing. She started the season by saying she's been waiting three years and she's coming for the crown. Yeah, well, it's fucking showing! She is on calls with everyone, winning everyone over, determining the vote (without having to convince people) and is in no trouble AT ALL. Rocky and Spencer are in an alliance with her and both of them aren't interested in cutting her. She is infectious on calls and DAMN it is good to see her back. I think Leah likes playing from a power position, so she has created a nice path for herself. I expect Leah to go late into the game... FTC will be tough, though. She needs to be careful and weary of Spencer (as everyone in the game should be).
2. Spencer
In my opinion, the most dangerous player in the game. I've played minis with Spencer. He promises everyone everything and just picks which path he wants to go down. That's the game he's setting up right now. The way he talks to players and how he shares information, makes everyone feel like they're "in" with him. The only reason he's not at the top is because he is so quick to drop people, due to other player's decisions. He didn't want to get rid of Morgan, and I think that's a major move he is going to regret. Morgan is the exact player he needs to get far in this game. He won't find that with anyone else on this tribe and it will be too late with other players. So being an asset down, I think Spencer will have a harder road to make it to the end, but he still has the social capital and savviness to take his game far.
3. Rocky
On every tribe, I truly think the 2 and 3 positions are best set up to win in the long game. Rocky has surprised me from day one. Not that he isn't a good player, but I didn't see his connections to other players as clearly as the rest. He and Leah are very tight and talk all the time. Spencer considers Rocky to be his number one, which is very very good for him. My biggest concern for him is any connections he has that are negatively impactful to his game. Honest, I see Rocky being a key ally for a lot of players in this game and it will definitely take him to any potential swaps and maybe the merge.
4. AJ
AJ exiles himself from a tribe he is, by all means, good on. At Tribal Council, I asked the players "what do you expect when the twist occurs after this vote?" and they said they would be strong and go against the new player. YET, AJ has found himself in the middle of the new tribe. He should, by all means, get voted out tonight. But he's not going to. And they're going to exile him again after the vote. As Spencer put it: AJ is literally Duke, but with upgrades.
5. Jermin
Jermin is a rollercoaster of a player. Unfortunately, it's mostly connected to his availability from his job. He goes through bouts of being available and not being around. The problem with his game is how complacent he is with being neutral to everything. He is always calling everyone, and not prioritizing allies or length of phone calls to the people he needs. Leah is commenting often about how inconsistent he is, and that's a bad person to piss off. Everyone likes him, though. It's a weird balance, but I see him floating by, so long his tribe can actually commit to winning a challenge. Otherwise, he might be an easy vote in a pinch.
6. Duke
I don't know what Duke has done wrong. Maybe wanting to keep Morgan, therefore giving the other players less? His laissez faire attitude? Whatever it is, players are recognizing that he is along for the ride and not in the way they've accepted. Honestly, I think the fact that Rocky/Leah/Spencer leaned in as hard as they did to each other, they felt like they can dictate who stays and who goes... because now that Morgan is gone, they have the clout to do so. Duke was the name they feel won't take them far enough, so he might be the name they write down tonight. This is all because Spencer/Leah/Rocky are playing on the fact that they've propped up AJ as having an idol (which no one is convinced of) and relying on voting out who THEY want, rather than "AJ choosing". They chose Duke. It was really manifested by Leah, and propagated by Spencer/Rocky. It's too soon to see Duke go, but that's how all returner seasons go..
7. Morgan
Sigh. Morgan did not deserve this. To be honest, I think the only thing that messed up her game was she was weak in her communication follow through with Leah. Not that Leah was dictating the vote, but, much like Ohio in election season, as Leah goes, so goes the tribe. Once Leah was bought onto the idea of voting out a female in Morgan, the deed was done. I think she should have leaned on Spencer a bit more, but she fell victim to the Spencer "anyone but me" experience. IF she would have been willing to write Duke's name down, this round would be way different. Unfortunately, we lost our season 13 Queen on the first vote
.
MY WINNER PICK AS OF TODAY:
AJ
Sorry I am behind schedule on my regular round by round breakdowns, but life has been a bit busy since the game started. We already lost a player (RIP Morgan), but I will be including my best understanding of her position and exit on the tribe breakdowns.
KORALA
This tribe has a LOT of experience and will be attending tribal council tonight. I haven't had much of an opportunity to check in on where they are thinking the votes may lie, as I've been attuned to the other tribal council. Regardless, here are my current standings!
1. Kyle
Kyle is effortless in his gameplay so far. He easily connects with people and not just through conversation. People like him, inherently. He doesn't need to give much, other than attention and witty banter to win over this tribe. Mike G has been working closely with him since the beginning and he's convinced Taylor that they are a duo. Honestly, I think he's still keeping his options open, and not committing to any player too soon. He does seem to have most loyalties with Mike G, but that's because Mike G is as invested in working with Kyle. Otherwise, all of the other players speak highly of him and want to work with him *right now*. This tribe is full of heavy hitters, so I wouldn't expect Kyle's longevity to be promised.
2. Mike G.
Mike is playing a masterful game. The reason he isn't my number one is mainly due to Kyle's prowess and Mike's own perception of him not being on top. Since he's not in an official alliance, he thinks that he's at the bottom. Funny part is, this tribe is slow to make any groups. They are all tight individually, but no one has really stepped forward to claim a group like the other tribes. Mike is the SOLE REASON they did not go to tribal last round. He absolute man-handled Oskola at the end to singlehandedly take immunity away from them. Even Oskola after the challenge and at tribal council were in awe of how he took that game away from them. He knows he is playing well, and to be honest, having his perception of being on the outs might improve his game even more. Mike isn't known to play chaotic; he is much more of a patient mastermind. I see him rising to the top of any tribe he is on. I worry for his stance at merge, but we have a lot of time until then.
3. Taylor
Taylor could be anywhere on this list. Time is her friend, and they don't have much more of it before they vote more people out. As of 20-30 hours ago, she was the name to be the first vote. Even after her and Kyle had a great conversation, Kyle admitted to liking her, but also respecting the fact that Mike wants her out due to her top tier playing. It's so wonderful to watch Taylor play again. Everyone is both drawn into her and threatened by how quickly they are drawn in to her. Taylor plays best from middle positions, which she is currently standing in. She somehow won over Mike and Kyle enough to possibly be saved this round. It's mainly due to the fact that she's someone they can rely on to be around in the game (unlike Allie). This is what bolstered her to this position. Mike and Kyle will hold her close until they're ready to cut her. That can happen at any time, tbh.
4. Amber
As someone who has played with Amber twice, this feels like the most honest and raw version I've seen of her. Amber is a fucking queen and usually leans into a villain role. She has the wit, and the biting remarks to make players blush post-game... but we aren't really seeing that Amber. She's been very vulnerable, up-front and kind to all of her tribemates. It feels as though she is truly enjoying this game and getting to know everyone. While she may be busy in the game, she's putting in just enough effort to keep people invested in keeping her. The consensus on the tribal council option of Amber has been "I really like her and I don't want her to leave". That's a great position for her, because she can turn it on late game and start to make her way to the top. Regardless of late game predictions, I see Amber cruising through the next few rounds, trying to rock the boat as seldom as possible.
5. Austin
Austin is exactly where he needs to be, IMO. He is typically served up as an easy first boot (see: Zanzibar). Austin thrives on playing from the bottom, and so long he survives a tribal, it gives him more time to blow up people's games. Lately, he has been roping in Mike G as some sort of sensei. Mike isn't exactly buying it, but he finds it endearing. Austin's MO this game has been "I'm trying to change my ways". I don't buy it one bit, but some of the players are starting to believe it. This is a recipe for some late game Austin fuck-shit-up energy. I'm HERE FOR IT!
6. Allie
Allie has been busy the last few days. We all get busy, but it's about finding time to placate your allies (see what i did there). People are starting to wonder what her stance is in the game and how she's going to help their games. They all liked her at the start of the game... but things change when you're forced to pick a name. I don't know what she can do to undo this current plan, as people have justified their reasons to keep everyone else. She might be able to drag Austin down, but I don't think she knows how to handle a player like Austin. I don't want to see her go... but we might be waving goodbye tonight
. MASKORRA
Maskorra has had the benefit of not going to any tribal councils. I do need to mention here that AJ was originally on this tribe, and he did a good job putting in werk with the people that are most important on the tribe. No one has been speaking shit about him offering himself to be exiled, nor do they dislike him in general. AJ made a big power play by both being generally liked by his OG tribe and being liked by his new tribe... but I will fill that in on the next write up.
1. Ben
Flashbacks of Zanzibar coming through. Ben is the reliable, likable leader that we came to know on XTC11. That being said, this is not a tribe of people who haven't played before. Those below Ben on the list are watching him quietly. Maskorra not going to tribal council is not helping Ben. When you're on top and no one is leaving, heavy is the head that wears the crown. That does not mean I think he will be blindsided, but they might be more inclined to weaken him by taking out an ally. Carlos has showed some disdain for Ben being chosen for everything. Carlos is good at planting seeds and I think he's holding onto that resentment to take a shot at him late game. For now? Ben is tight with Nina (who also wants to work with him) and Nina is maaayyybe not the most solid person to have as your number one. Anywho, he should be fine for a round or two.
2. Nina
Everyone knows that Nina is agent chaos. Yet, everyone loves her and wants to work with her, with a watchful eye. She's funny, around to talk, being good with the tribe and making close allies. As I mentioned above, she is closest with Ben, but is not perceived as a big threat by anyone (yet). Nina knows how to maximize her potential in her positions, so I think she will be a force through the late game. The real question is: will Nina start to build the right game for her to win this game?
3. Jenn
I debated putting Jenn in this position, but I really think she has found herself in a very comfortable middle position. No one really speaks ill of her nor gushes. Carlos seems to be the person she is clicking with the most, and he respects Jenn's gameplay, so he won't be blindsiding her. Having a player like Carlos with you is a nice shield. She needs a shield and a familiar face she can trust. This might be the unlikely duo that goes late into the game and propels Jenn into a power position. My major concern is that she will make the moves to consider herself a threat to win. I would never use goat with any of these players, but I could see her game becoming too muddy and she finds herself being taken through round to round. I'm very interested to see how her game plays out.
4. Carlos
Carlos is such an interesting player. As someone who played with/against him in Legacy, he tends to have a slow approach and play both chaotic and lazy. Lazy isn't necessarily bad, I think it's more attuned to his convenience. That being said, he is slow playing this game so far and I think it will set him up for future success. With "up front" players like Ben and Michael, Carlos can even hide behind veterans like Jenn to insulate him in the late game. My real question is how will Carlos handle his options in the late game. He is very game wise, so I anticipate him stirring the pot when he gets to a bump in the road. My concern is if he gets mixed up with a wild card like Austin. Players like Austin truly throw wrenches onto the paths of other chaotic players. Either way, he's sitting in a good spot.
5. Lamont
Lamont is a slow burn. He also feeds off of drama, so his tribe winning twice in a row is doing him no favors other than helping him slowly get some players on his side. He likes to lead, but I fear he might be a side-cart player for someone else. What he needs to lock down is who his ride or die is. He is currently not with Ben's vibe and said so at the end of a call with him. Not that he doesn't like him, but that he sees him as a threat. If he wants to take the wheel, he should find the right time to target Ben and get support behind it. He shouldn't rush this, though. Going after Ben early could be a detriment to his game.
6. Michael
Michael is constantly plagued by his own perceptions. As we know, Michael is very much a cerebral player, however, it may be to a fault in this season. He's vocal, always available and transparent in his intentions (for the most part). That being said, most players believe they can read Michael and therefore don't read too much into his gameplay. Are they right? Well, in some estimations, but not all. Like I said, he is very cerebral. I do fear that he overthinks and is constantly reading into everything too much. He recognizes himself as a challenge beast (which he is, as far as Only Connect is concerned), but I don't think other players are weighing challenge prowess much into their assessments. This is an all returner season. Challenges are merely a random element to decide who's leaving, not how the game is going to be played. I worry he will be paying attention to the wrong details as the game moves forward. Also, players can quickly become overwhelmed with his volume of communication. I hope he can recognize this and learn that making them wonder about his game might help his actual game. Either way, if he keeps winning challenges, he won't need to worry until the merge.
OSKOLA
The tribe that keeps losing. If anything, the most interesting of tribes, thanks for their need to cut players from the game.
1. Leah
Much like all of my current top-spotters on this write-up, Leah needs to treat carefully... but who am I kidding. She knows exactly what she's doing. She started the season by saying she's been waiting three years and she's coming for the crown. Yeah, well, it's fucking showing! She is on calls with everyone, winning everyone over, determining the vote (without having to convince people) and is in no trouble AT ALL. Rocky and Spencer are in an alliance with her and both of them aren't interested in cutting her. She is infectious on calls and DAMN it is good to see her back. I think Leah likes playing from a power position, so she has created a nice path for herself. I expect Leah to go late into the game... FTC will be tough, though. She needs to be careful and weary of Spencer (as everyone in the game should be).
2. Spencer
In my opinion, the most dangerous player in the game. I've played minis with Spencer. He promises everyone everything and just picks which path he wants to go down. That's the game he's setting up right now. The way he talks to players and how he shares information, makes everyone feel like they're "in" with him. The only reason he's not at the top is because he is so quick to drop people, due to other player's decisions. He didn't want to get rid of Morgan, and I think that's a major move he is going to regret. Morgan is the exact player he needs to get far in this game. He won't find that with anyone else on this tribe and it will be too late with other players. So being an asset down, I think Spencer will have a harder road to make it to the end, but he still has the social capital and savviness to take his game far.
3. Rocky
On every tribe, I truly think the 2 and 3 positions are best set up to win in the long game. Rocky has surprised me from day one. Not that he isn't a good player, but I didn't see his connections to other players as clearly as the rest. He and Leah are very tight and talk all the time. Spencer considers Rocky to be his number one, which is very very good for him. My biggest concern for him is any connections he has that are negatively impactful to his game. Honest, I see Rocky being a key ally for a lot of players in this game and it will definitely take him to any potential swaps and maybe the merge.
4. AJ
AJ exiles himself from a tribe he is, by all means, good on. At Tribal Council, I asked the players "what do you expect when the twist occurs after this vote?" and they said they would be strong and go against the new player. YET, AJ has found himself in the middle of the new tribe. He should, by all means, get voted out tonight. But he's not going to. And they're going to exile him again after the vote. As Spencer put it: AJ is literally Duke, but with upgrades.
5. Jermin
Jermin is a rollercoaster of a player. Unfortunately, it's mostly connected to his availability from his job. He goes through bouts of being available and not being around. The problem with his game is how complacent he is with being neutral to everything. He is always calling everyone, and not prioritizing allies or length of phone calls to the people he needs. Leah is commenting often about how inconsistent he is, and that's a bad person to piss off. Everyone likes him, though. It's a weird balance, but I see him floating by, so long his tribe can actually commit to winning a challenge. Otherwise, he might be an easy vote in a pinch.
6. Duke
I don't know what Duke has done wrong. Maybe wanting to keep Morgan, therefore giving the other players less? His laissez faire attitude? Whatever it is, players are recognizing that he is along for the ride and not in the way they've accepted. Honestly, I think the fact that Rocky/Leah/Spencer leaned in as hard as they did to each other, they felt like they can dictate who stays and who goes... because now that Morgan is gone, they have the clout to do so. Duke was the name they feel won't take them far enough, so he might be the name they write down tonight. This is all because Spencer/Leah/Rocky are playing on the fact that they've propped up AJ as having an idol (which no one is convinced of) and relying on voting out who THEY want, rather than "AJ choosing". They chose Duke. It was really manifested by Leah, and propagated by Spencer/Rocky. It's too soon to see Duke go, but that's how all returner seasons go..
7. Morgan
Sigh. Morgan did not deserve this. To be honest, I think the only thing that messed up her game was she was weak in her communication follow through with Leah. Not that Leah was dictating the vote, but, much like Ohio in election season, as Leah goes, so goes the tribe. Once Leah was bought onto the idea of voting out a female in Morgan, the deed was done. I think she should have leaned on Spencer a bit more, but she fell victim to the Spencer "anyone but me" experience. IF she would have been willing to write Duke's name down, this round would be way different. Unfortunately, we lost our season 13 Queen on the first vote
. MY WINNER PICK AS OF TODAY:
AJ